Three things to look for in Trump's State of the Union speech
Jon Sopel
On Tuesday night, a week later than originally scheduled (the protracted government shutdown got in the way), the president will take the short car ride from the White House to the Capitol and deliver his State of the Union speech.
It's like the State Opening of Parliament at Westminster - except without the horses and carriages - and of course there's no throne or crown.
But this is the big set-piece of the Washington year. So what to expect?
Well, let's break it down into three bite size chunks:
1: The choreography
This is going to be a speech where Nancy Pelosi, the new Democratic Party Speaker of the House, is going to be looking over his shoulder.
Literally.
While Donald Trump will deliver the address from the House of Representatives floor, she sits behind a desk on a slightly raised level. Sitting to her right will be Vice-President Mike Pence.
Why this matters is that there is a new political reality for Donald Trump: the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives is no longer a friendly place for the president.
Add to that the growing field of Democratic 2020 presidential challengers, all eager to become the voice of every single anti-Trump voter.
Trump's border wall pledge may be his 'read my lips' moment
The remarkable comeback of America's most powerful woman
After he speaks on Tuesday, the Democratic response will be given by Stacey Abrams, the first African-American woman to give the formal "rebuttal" of a president's State of the Union.
She narrowly lost a tight contest for Georgia governor last November, but impressed many in her party with her campaign and has now been marked out as a rising star.
2: The wall
Front and centre of this speech is going to be the president's battle to get funding for his border wall.
Those with pesky long memories will recall that Mexico was going to pay for it.
But that hasn't happened so the American taxpayer is going to have to foot the bill.
And before Christmas, Donald Trump shut down the government over his demand that $5.7bn ($4.3bn) be allocated for building work.
ust shy of a million workers were laid off. After five weeks, the government re-opened without a single extra cent pledged towards the wall.
He'd got into an arm wrestle with the woman who'll be looking over his shoulder tonight, and came second.
This State of the Union comes at a midway point - the president reopened the government for three weeks in the hope that a way forward could be found on funding his wall.
Spoiler alert: They won't come up with the money.
o look out for the president saying something about declaring a state of emergency on the southern border as a way of being able to secure the funding.
It would be a risky move, as it will be subject to legal challenge - and that will delay things still further.
It might also lead to a vote in the Senate in which some Republicans side with Democrats and pass a motion expressing disapproval of the president's move.
With the numbers of illegal immigrants crossing the border falling annually, the president's opponents would ask, what is the national emergency?
So he might prefer not to upset the apple cart on such an auspicious occasion and keep that trump card for the days ahead.
The president still hopes he'll be able to make progress on rebuilding America's creaking infrastructure.
Overseas he'll talk about the fight being nearly won against the Islamic State group; he'll trumpet America's support for Juan Guaidó in Venezuela.
And of course the need for fair trade that protects the American worker.
Expect a lot about ending political stalemates, bridging divisions, healing wounds, building new coalitions.
Though just as important with a President Trump State of the Union speech is what is said either side of the speech. Remember Teleprompter Donald and Twitter Donald are not always the same person.
3: The strategy
Going back to choreography, remember that Mr Trump on Tuesday night will feel Nancy Pelosi breathing down his neck (this time more metaphorically than literally).
It is true that in the mid-term elections the Republicans increased their majority in the Senate with wins in states that should never have gone to the Democrats.
But more significant were the nationwide results in the House. Suburban America for the most part turned its back on the president. Large numbers of women who'd voted for him in 2016 also cocked a snook at him.
Polls during and after the government shutdown showed a lot of blue-collar families walking away from the Trump brand. There is no path to victory in 2020 without bringing these people back into the fold.
Until now, President Trump has focused on his core support and summoned his inner Meghan Trainor and sung only one song - it's all about that base.
1: The choreography
This is going to be a speech where Nancy Pelosi, the new Democratic Party Speaker of the House, is going to be looking over his shoulder.
Literally.
While Donald Trump will deliver the address from the House of Representatives floor, she sits behind a desk on a slightly raised level. Sitting to her right will be Vice-President Mike Pence.
One will be applauding a lot and smiling broadly; the other less so.
Why this matters is that there is a new political reality for Donald Trump: the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives is no longer a friendly place for the president.
Add to that the growing field of Democratic 2020 presidential challengers, all eager to become the voice of every single anti-Trump voter.
Trump's border wall pledge may be his 'read my lips' moment
The remarkable comeback of America's most powerful woman
After he speaks on Tuesday, the Democratic response will be given by Stacey Abrams, the first African-American woman to give the formal "rebuttal" of a president's State of the Union.
She narrowly lost a tight contest for Georgia governor last November, but impressed many in her party with her campaign and has now been marked out as a rising star.
2: The wall
Front and centre of this speech is going to be the president's battle to get funding for his border wall.
Those with pesky long memories will recall that Mexico was going to pay for it.
But that hasn't happened so the American taxpayer is going to have to foot the bill.
And before Christmas, Donald Trump shut down the government over his demand that $5.7bn ($4.3bn) be allocated for building work.
ust shy of a million workers were laid off. After five weeks, the government re-opened without a single extra cent pledged towards the wall.
He'd got into an arm wrestle with the woman who'll be looking over his shoulder tonight, and came second.
This State of the Union comes at a midway point - the president reopened the government for three weeks in the hope that a way forward could be found on funding his wall.
Spoiler alert: They won't come up with the money.
So look out for the president saying something about declaring a state of emergency on the southern border as a way of being able to secure the funding.
It would be a risky move, as it will be subject to legal challenge - and that will delay things still further.
It might also lead to a vote in the Senate in which some Republicans side with Democrats and pass a motion expressing disapproval of the president's move.
With the numbers of illegal immigrants crossing the border falling annually, the president's opponents would ask, what is the national emergency?
So he might prefer not to upset the apple cart on such an auspicious occasion and keep that trump card for the days ahead.
The president still hopes he'll be able to make progress on rebuilding America's creaking infrastructure.
Overseas he'll talk about the fight being nearly won against the Islamic State group; he'll trumpet America's support for Juan Guaidó in Venezuela.
And of course the need for fair trade that protects the American worker.
Expect a lot about ending political stalemates, bridging divisions, healing wounds, building new coalitions.
Though just as important with a President Trump State of the Union speech is what is said either side of the speech. Remember Teleprompter Donald and Twitter Donald are not always the same person.
3: The strategy
Going back to choreography, remember that Mr Trump on Tuesday night will feel Nancy Pelosi breathing down his neck (this time more metaphorically than literally).
It is true that in the mid-term elections the Republicans increased their majority in the Senate with wins in states that should never have gone to the Democrats.
But more significant were the nationwide results in the House. Suburban America for the most part turned its back on the president. Large numbers of women who'd voted for him in 2016 also cocked a snook at him.
Polls during and after the government shutdown showed a lot of blue-collar families walking away from the Trump brand. There is no path to victory in 2020 without bringing these people back into the fold.
Until now, President Trump has focused on his core support and summoned his inner Meghan Trainor and sung only one song - it's all about that base.
But maybe with 2020 beckoning, the president is recognising the need to reach beyond a narrowing cohort of voters.
As befitting a child of the 1960s, maybe he's now going to be singing Come Together.
Source: BBC
Comment blog editor
It is not the first time that the US presidency belongs to the Republican Party and Congress is controlled by the Democratic Party. The midterm elections in the presidential term have often affected the composition of Congress. This is the first time that the contradictions between the White House and Congress have escalated. President Trump is determined to build the wall in the southern buffer zone with Mexico to curb immigration from Latin America, which is making extremely complex demographic and linguistic changes. Congress does not match the physical cost of the wall and offers other alternatives. The issue from a purely political perspective relates to the president's electoral pledges, which affect his credibility to his constituency, which will affect his future in obtaining a second term. President Trump insisted on approving the budget before the US fiscal year
ثلاثة أشياء يجب البحث عنها في خطاب حالة الاتحاد لترامبIt is not the first time that the US presidency belongs to the Republican Party and Congress is controlled by the Democratic Party. The midterm elections in the presidential term have often affected the composition of Congress. This is the first time that the contradictions between the White House and Congress have escalated. President Trump is determined to build the wall in the southern buffer zone with Mexico to curb immigration from Latin America, which is making extremely complex demographic and linguistic changes. Congress does not match the physical cost of the wall and offers other alternatives. The issue from a purely political perspective relates to the president's electoral pledges, which affect his credibility to his constituency, which will affect his future in obtaining a second term. President Trump insisted on approving the budget before the US fiscal year
جون سوبل
محرر أمريكا الشمالية
bbcjonsopel
في ليلة الثلاثاء ، أي بعد أسبوع من الموعد المحدد أصلاً (توقف إغلاق الحكومة المطول) ، سيأخذ الرئيس رحلة قصيرة بالسيارة من البيت الأبيض إلى مبنى الكابيتول ويلقي خطاب حالة الاتحاد.
إنه يشبه افتتاح البرلمان في وستمنستر - باستثناء ما عدا الخيول والعربات - وبالطبع لا يوجد عرش أو تاج.
لكن هذه هي المجموعة الكبيرة من سنة واشنطن. ماذا تتوقع؟
حسنًا ، دعنا نقسمها إلى ثلاث قطع بحجم لدغة:
1: الكوريغرافيا
سيكون هذا خطاباً ستبدو فيه نانسي بيلوسي ، رئيسة الحزب الديمقراطي الجديدة في مجلس النواب ، على كتفه.
حرفيا.
بينما سيلقي دونالد ترامب العنوان من قاعة مجلس النواب ، تجلس خلف مكتب على مستوى مرتفع قليلاً. وستجلس إلى يمينها نائب الرئيس مايك بنس.
واحد سوف يصفق كثيرا ويبتسم على نطاق واسع. الآخر أقل من ذلك.
لماذا يهم هذا أن هناك حقيقة سياسية جديدة بالنسبة لدونالد ترامب: لم يعد مجلس النواب الذي يسيطر عليه الديمقراطيون مكاناً صديقاً للرئيس.
أضف إلى ذلك المجال المتنامي للمنافسة الرئاسية الديموقراطية لعام 2020 ، وجميعهم يتوقون لأن يصبحوا صوت كل ناخب واحد مناهض لترامب.
قد يكون التعهد بجدار ترامب الحدودي لحظة "قراءة شفتي"
عودة رائعة لأمريكا أقوى امرأة
بعد أن تحدث يوم الثلاثاء ، سيقدم رد الفعل الديمقراطي من قبل ستايسي أبرامز ، أول امرأة أمريكية من أصل إفريقي تعطي "الطعن" الرسمي لدولة رئيس الاتحاد.
وفقدت ضيقة منافسة شديدة على حاكم جورجيا في تشرين الثاني (نوفمبر) الماضي ، لكنها أثارت إعجاب الكثيرين في حزبها بحملتها ، وقد تم تحديدها الآن كنجمة صاعدة.
2: الجدار
سوف تكون جبهة هذا الخطاب ومركزه معركة الرئيس للحصول على تمويل لجداره الحدودي.
أولئك الذين لديهم ذكريات طويلة مزعجة سيتذكرون أن المكسيك سوف تدفع ثمن ذلك.
لكن هذا لم يحدث ، لذلك على دافع الضرائب الأمريكي أن يسدد الفاتورة.
وقبل عيد الميلاد ، أوقف دونالد ترامب الحكومة بسبب مطالبته بتخصيص 5.7 مليار دولار (4.3 مليار دولار) لأعمال البناء.
تم تسريح خجول من مليون عامل. بعد خمسة أسابيع ، أعيد فتح الحكومة دون تعهّد سنت إضافي واحد نحو الجدار.
لقد دخل في مصارعة الذراع مع المرأة التي ستبدو فوق كتفه الليلة ، وجاءت في المرتبة الثانية.
تأتي حالة الاتحاد هذه في منتصف الطريق - أعاد الرئيس فتح الحكومة لمدة ثلاثة أسابيع على أمل العثور على طريق إلى الأمام في تمويل جداره.
تنبيه المفسد: لن يخرجوا بالمال.
لذا ابحث عن الرئيس يقول شيئًا عن إعلان حالة الطوارئ على الحدود الجنوبية كطريقة للتمكن من تأمين التمويل.
ستكون هذه خطوة محفوفة بالمخاطر ، حيث أنها ستكون عرضة للتحدي القانوني - وهذا سيؤخر الأمور أكثر.
قد يؤدي ذلك أيضًا إلى التصويت في مجلس الشيوخ الذي يقترب فيه بعض الجمهوريين من الديمقراطيين وتمرير اقتراح يعبر عن رفضه لتحرك الرئيس.
مع انخفاض أعداد المهاجرين غير الشرعيين الذين يعبرون الحدود سنوياً ، فإن معارضي الرئيس سيسألون ، ما هي حالة الطوارئ الوطنية؟
لذلك قد يفضل عدم إغضاب عربة التفاحة في هذه المناسبة السعيدة والحفاظ على تلك الورقة الرابحة للأيام القادمة.
لا يزال الرئيس يأمل في أن يتمكن من إحراز تقدم في إعادة بناء البنية التحتية الأمريكية المتداعية.
في الخارج ، سيتحدث عن المعركة تقريبًا ضد تنظيم الدولة الإسلامية. سيبدي دعم أمريكا لخوان غويدو في فنزويلا.
وبالطبع الحاجة إلى التجارة العادلة التي تحمي العامل الأمريكي.
نتوقع الكثير حول إنهاء الجمود السياسي ، وسد الانقسامات ، وتضميد الجراح ، وبناء تحالفات جديدة.
على الرغم من أهمية خطاب الرئيس ترامب عن حالة الاتحاد ، فإن ما يقال هو جانب كل من الخطاب. تذكر أن Teleprompter Donald و Twitter Donald ليسا دائماً نفس الشخص.
3: الاستراتيجية
بالعودة إلى الكوريغرافيا ، تذكر أن السيد ترامب في ليلة الثلاثاء سيشعر بنانسي بيلوسي وهي تتنفس عنقه (هذه المرة مجازية أكثر من حرفيا).
صحيح أنه في انتخابات التجديد النصفي ، زاد الجمهوريون أغلبيتهم في مجلس الشيوخ بفوز في ولايات لم يكن يجب أن تذهب إلى الديمقراطيين.
ولكن الأهم من ذلك كان النتائج على مستوى البلاد في مجلس النواب. تراجعت أمريكا في الضواحي معظمها عن الرئيس. أعداد كبيرة من النساء اللواتي صوتن له في عام 2016 أيضا بقبض عليه.
وأظهرت استطلاعات الرأي أثناء وبعد إغلاق الحكومة أن الكثير من العائلات ذات الياقات الزرقاء تفلت من ماركة ترامب. لا يوجد طريق لتحقيق النصر في عام 2020 دون إعادة هؤلاء الناس إلى الحظيرة.
حتى الآن ، ركز الرئيس ترامب على دعمه الأساسي واستدعى مدربه ميغان الداخلي وغنى أغنية واحدة فقط - كل شيء عن تلك القاعدة.
ولكن ربما مع حلول عام 2020 ، يدرك الرئيس الحاجة إلى الوصول إلى ما بعد مجموعة ضيقة من الناخبين.
بما أنّ هو يليق طفلة من الستينات ، ربّما هو يكون الآن يغنون الآن تعالوا معا.
المصدر: بي بي سي
تعليق محرر المدونة
ليست المرة الاولى ان تكون الرئاسة الامريكية تنتمي للحزب الجمهوري والكونغرس يسيطر عليه الحزب الديمقراطي فغالبا ما اثرت الانتخابات النيابية النصفية في الولاية الرئاسية على تركيبة الكونغرس. هذه المرة الاولى تتصاعد التناقضات بين البيت الابيض والكونغرس فالرئيس ترامب مصمم على بناء الجدار في الجنوب العازل مع المكسيك للحد من الهجرة من امريكا الاتينية التي تحدث تغيرات ديمغرافية ولغوية غاية في التعقيد. فالكونغرس لايتفق مع الكلفة المادية للجدار ويطرح بدائل اخرى. القضية من المنظور السياسي المحض تتصل بالتعهدات الانتخابية للرئيس والتي تؤثر بهذا القدر اوذاك على مصداقيته امام ناخبيه مما ينعكس على مستقبله في الحصول على ولاية ثانية لهذا اصر الرئيس ترامب على المصادقة بميزانية قبل العام المالي الامريكي
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