New Saudi statement on Khashoggi's death: policy response ----By Simon Henderson

New Saudi statement on Khashoggi's death: policy response
By Simon Henderson
On November 15, the Saudi Public Prosecution issued its final statement on the killing of a journalist who was living in a voluntary exile, Jamal Khashoggi, declaring that she had charged 11 people, including five "who ordered and committed murder" Khashoggi's assassination and that these five face the possible death penalty. Ten others are being held for further investigation.
In determining how policy makers should respond to this statement, they are likely to resort to two tests
Is the Saudi interpretation convincing? This is particularly worrisome with respect to public opinion in the countries that supply arms to the Kingdom, especially the United States, where Congress plays a key role in approving arms deals.
Is it acceptable? The test remains a concern for many US allies who have been horrified by the incident. However, policymakers recognize the need to maintain working relations with Riyadh to take oil prices into account and ensure their stability and avoid disrupting the global economy
Many officials may continue to hope that developments in the economic and social policies of Mohammed bin Salman may survive the crisis
The November 15 communiqué largely repeats Riyadh's main scenario: that the murder at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on 2 October was a rogue operation and that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was not involved in any form Shapes. However, the claim remains questionable due to the prince's proximity to some of the suspects, including the Saudi royal court adviser and media assistant Saud al-Qahtani, who has been sanctioned by the United States since Khashoggi's crisis and prevented from leaving the kingdom
Many of the details of the statement are naive (or unreasonable). Last month, for example, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubair said Khashoggi's body had been left intact, wrapped in a carpet, and given to a Turkish contractor for disposal, without mentioning the latter's name
In response, the Turkish Government requested the name of that contractor, but to no avail. The new Saudi statement admits Khashoggi's body has been dismembered and continues to claim that after the body was cut, its parts were handed over to a local "collaborator", also without his name, although Riyadh offered the Turkish authorities to hand over an "approximate" The person ("the collaborator") based on the descriptions of one of the suspected detainees
In the next phase, Washington and its allies seem to recognize the need to maintain working relations with Mohammed bin Salman, the country's main decision-maker, given his father's age and poor health. But as British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said during his visit to Riyadh this week: "The officials were very explicit in stressing how important it is for Saudi strategic partners to know that this can not happen and will not happen again." US Defense Secretary James Mattis warned Riyadh last month that Khashoggi's death undermined the "stability of the region" and that the culprits must be held accountable
Washington and its allies seem to recognize the need to maintain working relations with Mohammed bin Salman
Many officials may continue to hope that developments in the economic and social policies of Mohammed bin Salman may survive the crisis. As the Israeli ambassador to Washington, Ron Dermer, said last week, "We should not take the prince with pigeons." But for the time being, foreign investors are likely to remain cautious about their commitment to aid those investors whose financial and technological assistance is indispensable to finance the planned economic transformation of the emir.
According to some reports, Turkey has involved officials in the United States, Britain, Canada, France and Germany, some of its intelligence information about the murder. However, these officials have only a few means of lobbying to influence Saudi policy in this case. Those who surround Muhammad ibn Salman want to know that he is ready to keep his bold approach until the crisis fades. However, Ankara still retains its supremacy and if the past is an indicator, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will soon leaked more information about what the security services have discovered in his country
Simon Henderson is a Baker fellow and director of the Bernstein Program for Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute.
Source: Idea Forum

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