The future of the relationship between Washington and Ankara after the US pastor

The future of the relationship between Washington and Ankara after the US pastor
an introduction
Turkey released the American priest (Andrew Branson) after more than two years in detention, came after the court (Ali Agha) in the Turkish region of Izmir, on Friday, October 12, 2018, a sentence of three years and one month and fifteen days, Who is scheduled to be released; for the duration of his sentence and his conduct during the trial, according to the Court.
Turkish authorities have arrested Pastor Branson on charges of espionage charges for Fathullah Gulen and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Turkey lists as terrorist lists.
It is worth mentioning that the relationship between Washington and Ankara has witnessed a state of crisis in the past period for a number of reasons, including the arrest of Rev. Branson, and threw its effects on a number of files, the most important economic file, what are the reasons for the arrest of the priest? What are the implications? Will the process of launching an improvement in the relationship between the two countries at the political, economic and military levels?
 Reasons for Capturing the Pastor
The American pastor, Andrew Branson, was born in 1968 and is 50 years old. He grew up in a religious family in the US state of Carolina. He went to Turkey and settled with his family for 23 years and was ready to apply for permanent residence in Turkey before his arrest.
Branson is a small evangelical church with 25 followers in the Turkish city of Izmir.
Turkish authorities arrested Branson two years ago on the grounds of his relationship with the PKK and the Gulen group, while Brunson and the United States categorically deny the charges.
The High Court of Penalties in Izmir, at its third hearing on July 18, sentenced Branson to prison and set the October 12 hearing to complete the trial, while his lawyer objected to the decision on the grounds that Branson's health condition had deteriorated. After considering the defense's objection, the court decided to release Branson and put him under house arrest ever since.
The repercussions of the priest's arrest and its impact on the tension between the two countries
Tramb said in a tweet on Twitter: "The United States will impose heavy sanctions on Turkey because of its long detention of Branson, a great Christian, a great head of household and a great man" . "If Turkey does not release the priest and send him to his country, the United States will impose substantial sanctions on it," said Pens, a US politician known for his extremist religious leanings, in a television interview. "While the Evangelical Church and the Christian Right sought to rally support for Branson and press Ankara to release him as a religious oppressor. The American Center for Law and Justice, a conservative Christian organization, mobilized 600,000 signatures in support of Branson.
On August 1, 2018, the US Treasury issued a statement announcing sanctions against the Turkish justice and interior ministers for their role in the arrest and detention of Branson. "These officials are leading Turkish government organizations and are responsible for Turkey's explicit violations of human rights, Human". The law under the Magnetsky Act of 2016 includes the confiscation of assets targeted within the United States, the ban on their entry into the country, and the prohibition of engaging in business with US entities or companies, which Turkey similarly faced, and issued a similar resolution regarding the US justice and interior ministers.
Washington also imposed an additional 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum, excluding countries such as South Korea, Brazil, Mexico and Canada.
The impact of this crisis has affected the Turkish lira, which has led to a drop to unprecedented levels, since the beginning of the year has lost 40% of its value.
In contrast, Turkey rejected the US threats, and while it considered that the case of US pastor judicial, America insisted that the issue is political and repeatedly demanded the Turkish government to intervene to release the priest.
The most important files and their future after the launch of the pastor
The case of the pastor was not the first to lead to a worsening relationship between Washington and Ankara, but there are many issues that have negatively affected their relationship, both with regard to Gulen or US support for the Kurdish factions in Syria, the Turkish-Russian rapprochement, Sanctions on Iran, or those related to the Palestinian and Syrian affairs. That is why some observers hope that the Rev.'s release will create tension and re-establish understandings between Washington and Ankara in a number of files, but it may not cover all open files.
- Political file:
Some believe that the release of the priest came after new understandings between Washington and Ankara on a number of issues. This came after the meeting between Erdogan and Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September 2018. In his content, But the change in the location of the prosecutor responsible for the case of the pastor and the exchange of testimony by some of the witnesses at the fourth and final hearing of the trial may reinforce the fact that there are common understandings and a desire In convergence, this may be cast b "The release of Branson is an important step to restore relations with Turkey," Trump said. "The release of Branson is an important step in restoring ties with Turkey. To the former, "while Turkish President Erdogan said:"
I hope that Turkey and the United States will continue to cooperate in a way that suits two allies. "In contrast, Trump seeks to capitalize on the priest's release in strengthening the party's popularity in the midterm elections, while Turkey has missed a major paper, so some issues will remain open, As for Turkey's rapprochement with Russia and with Iran to a certain extent, Turkey may see this as a result of its Western friends ignoring its interests and national security and improving relations with America if it is not at the expense of the relationship with Russia. Turkey will maintain the balance of the relationship between Russia and Syria. The two countries The Turkish lira gained significantly after the release of the Rev., where the dollar fell from 5.97 to 5.83, and is still improving after that date, while the US administration is expected to reduce economic sanctions imposed on Turkey. "We will come to a decision soon, now there is a reason to lift it, but the final decision has not yet been reached, and I will talk with President Donald Trump in this regard," US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on his recent visit to Turkey following the priest's release. On the other hand, Washington accuses Turkish bank Halk of involvement in financing Iranian interests, and that the bank is a backdoor to Iran used to evade US sanctions. In May 2018, a US court sentenced Mohamed Hikan Attila, former assistant general manager of Bank Bank While the former banker appealed the verdict. Ankara strongly protested his conviction and sought to lift these sanctions and hand over the arrested Attila in New York. However, some statements indicate that the proposal was rejected by the US administration. The military file: The military file in its two parts, the field and the file of armament, is a thorny issue, especially since America has not abandoned until now the support of the Kurdish units, in addition to those files that did not have a clear vision in order to find a solution, (F-35), which Turkey wants to obtain it and the US Congress so far, in addition to the deal of the Russian air defense systems (S-400), which seeks to stop America, the time when Ankara insists on its position and desire to acquire this modern technology , As well as the conflict in Palestine Syria, and these six files probably Remained open and could lead to a further rupture of relations between the two countries. Conclusion The relationship between Washington and Ankara over the past months has witnessed a severe crisis, which some see as the most serious because of the differences that affect the bilateral relationship and the conflict of interests between the two countries, while the Turks insist on resolving the crisis but not on the basis of succumbing to pressure and compliance with threats, On the basis of joint understandings, and perhaps the release of the priest will improve the relationship between the two countries and opens a path of understanding again, especially as it was followed by the visit of the US Secretary of State to Ankara, but that does not mean the settlement of all thorny files, especially those large files, In particular, including Yeh.
 Center for Strategic Thought Studies