A Russian Attack on Montenegro Could Mean the End of NATO
Trump doesn’t think the country is worth defending. Putin has already tried to destabilize it once—the West can’t let it happen again.
Most worryingly for the West, the coup de grâce could come in the Balkans, long the stage for Russian competition with the West. No one knows what Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to in their two-hour private meeting in Helsinki earlier this month. Trump may have handed Putin a list of key marginal congressional races in which he needs Russia to interfere. It’s more likely that they talked about NATO, Crimea, and Ukraine—and that Putin got what he wanted from Trump.
Indeed, Trump appears to be playing along with a Russian ploy that could shatter the NATO alliance by going after its newest member. “Montenegro is a tiny country with very strong people,” the president told the Fox News host and Trump admirer Tucker Carlson, the day after meeting with Putin. “They have very aggressive people. And they may get aggressive, and congratulations, you are in World War III,” he added. An armed Russian incursion in Montenegro—involving hybrid or traditional warfare—would give Trump an opportunity to make good on his word to Fox News and tell NATO allies that Washington will not honor Article 5 of the NATO treaty and join its allies in coming to Montenegro’s aid.
Without U.S. involvement in an operation by the NATO Response Force—NATO’s multinational high-readiness attack force—Europe would likely back off and not respond to a surprise assault. Russia’s attack would not occur via land-based forces, which would have to travel through multiple countries that lean Western. Instead, the attack would likely come by sea and air.
Such a scenario would do mortal damage to NATO, irrevocably splitting the alliance. Russia has already attempted a coup in Montenegro to prevent it from joining NATO
Russia has already attempted a coup in Montenegro to prevent it from joining NATO
in the first place, and more recently, developments in Macedonia have led to Russian intelligence agents from the FSB—the main successor to the KGB—deploying in order to attempt to foment unrest there, as well as in Greece, where two diplomats were just expelled for ginning up opposition to a Greek deal with Macedonia to change the latter’s name and put to rest a long-simmering dispute.
Although Russia will never attack U.S. or Western forces directly—the several hundred Russian mercenary soldiers killed by U.S. forces in Syria recently are a case in point—it actually doesn’t have to. Russia can mortally wound NATO without ever engaging its forces head-on. Not only are the FSB and GRU—Russia’s military intelligence unit—increasingly targeting the Balkans, but Russia has also now deployed the bulk of its most effective military forces on its western border.
Montenegro is NATO’s newest and, in many ways, its weakest member. Having only become independent from Serbia in 2006, its minuscule population of about 630,000 features armed forces that number only around 2,000. It is a small and peaceful country, the only one of the former Yugoslav republics that did not get caught up in the violent aftermath of the breakup of Yugoslavia.
However, even before it was independent and well before becoming a member of NATO, Montenegro was and continues to be a contributor to NATO forces in Afghanistan, making a significant contribution in per capita terms. In fact, at Washington’s request, Montenegro actually increased its deployment in Afghanistan in 2017. But Russia has been pressuring Montenegro for the past decade.
In 2017, after the Montenegrin Parliament voted in favor of joining NATO, the Russian Foreign Ministry said the government had “ignored the voice of reason and conscience” and that Russia reserved “the right to take steps aimed at defending our interests and national security.” Russia rapidly banned imports of all Montenegrin wine and declared an advisory for Russians traveling there, while Putin’s spokesman threatened further “retaliatory actions.”
Most worryingly for the West, the coup de grâce could come in the Balkans, long the stage for Russian competition with the West. No one knows what Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to in their two-hour private meeting in Helsinki earlier this month. Trump may have handed Putin a list of key marginal congressional races in which he needs Russia to interfere. It’s more likely that they talked about NATO, Crimea, and Ukraine—and that Putin got what he wanted from Trump.
Indeed, Trump appears to be playing along with a Russian ploy that could shatter the NATO alliance by going after its newest member. “Montenegro is a tiny country with very strong people,” the president told the Fox News host and Trump admirer Tucker Carlson, the day after meeting with Putin. “They have very aggressive people. And they may get aggressive, and congratulations, you are in World War III,” he added. An armed Russian incursion in Montenegro—involving hybrid or traditional warfare—would give Trump an opportunity to make good on his word to Fox News and tell NATO allies that Washington will not honor Article 5 of the NATO treaty and join its allies in coming to Montenegro’s aid.
Without U.S. involvement in an operation by the NATO Response Force—NATO’s multinational high-readiness attack force—Europe would likely back off and not respond to a surprise assault. Russia’s attack would not occur via land-based forces, which would have to travel through multiple countries that lean Western. Instead, the attack would likely come by sea and air.
Such a scenario would do mortal damage to NATO, irrevocably splitting the alliance. Russia has already attempted a coup in Montenegro to prevent it from joining NATO
Russia has already attempted a coup in Montenegro to prevent it from joining NATOin the first place, and more recently, developments in Macedonia have led to Russian intelligence agents from the FSB—the main successor to the KGB—deploying in order to attempt to foment unrest there, as well as in Greece, where two diplomats were just expelled for ginning up opposition to a Greek deal with Macedonia to change the latter’s name and put to rest a long-simmering dispute.
Although Russia will never attack U.S. or Western forces directly—the several hundred Russian mercenary soldiers killed by U.S. forces in Syria recently are a case in point—it actually doesn’t have to. Russia can mortally wound NATO without ever engaging its forces head-on. Not only are the FSB and GRU—Russia’s military intelligence unit—increasingly targeting the Balkans, but Russia has also now deployed the bulk of its most effective military forces on its western border.
Montenegro is NATO’s newest and, in many ways, its weakest member. Having only become independent from Serbia in 2006, its minuscule population of about 630,000 features armed forces that number only around 2,000. It is a small and peaceful country, the only one of the former Yugoslav republics that did not get caught up in the violent aftermath of the breakup of Yugoslavia.
However, even before it was independent and well before becoming a member of NATO, Montenegro was and continues to be a contributor to NATO forces in Afghanistan, making a significant contribution in per capita terms. In fact, at Washington’s request, Montenegro actually increased its deployment in Afghanistan in 2017. But Russia has been pressuring Montenegro for the past decade.
In 2017, after the Montenegrin Parliament voted in favor of joining NATO, the Russian Foreign Ministry said the government had “ignored the voice of reason and conscience” and that Russia reserved “the right to take steps aimed at defending our interests and national security.” Russia rapidly banned imports of all Montenegrin wine and declared an advisory for Russians traveling there, while Putin’s spokesman threatened further “retaliatory actions.”
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